The one thing to worry about with Monfils is fatigue. He played five matches in his title run in Auckland, and his opening-round match against Mpetshi Perricard was very physical. That’s a lot for an older player, and we did see him gasping for air and doing his classic hands-on-knees pose against Altmaier. But some of that is just gamesmanship, and he tends to tap into his mobility and athleticism even when he looks like he’s running on empty. Also, the Altmaier match only took two hours and 20 minutes. That straight-set win should help him recharge a little for this one.
It’s also worth mentioning that these two played in this very tournament back in 2019, when Fritz won 6-3, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5). Sure, Fritz is a much better player today than he was then. But Monfils is also playing better to start 2025 than he was in 2019.
I’m not sure this match will look all that different than the last one. These two aren’t exactly servebots, but they’re going to rack up holds. So, when we get late in sets and get to coin-flip tiebreakers, I like Monfils’ chances of avoiding a straight-set loss.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-121)
